為什么工黨在我居住的地方越來越強大，在全國范圍卻越來越弱?
Why Did Labour Get Stronger Where I Live But Lose the Country?
譯文簡介
本文講英國坎特伯雷這里的工黨在選舉中占據(jù)優(yōu)勢，在全國范圍卻不得勢。這就值得思考的為什么它會發(fā)生。
正文翻譯
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.ltaaa.com 翻譯：遼闊天空 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
I live in Canterbury, where the Labour MP Rosie Duffield increased her slim majority tenfold in the general election. Given Labour’s defeat in almost all of the rest of the UK, it’s worth considering why this happened,.
我住在坎特伯雷，這里的工黨議員羅西·達菲爾德(Rosie Duffield)在大選中把她微弱優(yōu)勢提高了10倍。如果聯(lián)系到工黨在英國幾乎所有地方的失利，這就值得思考的為什么它會發(fā)生。
A prime reason Duffield retained her seat is that that Labour had the support of a rickety but effective anti-Tory common front that counter-balanced the negative factors which were sinking its hopes elsewhere. The Lib Dem candidate unilaterally stood down and endorsed Duffield so as not to split the Remain vote, though he was promptly replaced by the Lib Dem leadership.
達菲爾德保住席位的一個主要原因是，工黨擁有一個脆弱但有效的反托利的共同陣線的支持。其他地方工黨獲勝希望渺茫，這個共同陣線正好平衡了這一消極因素。為了不分裂留歐派的選票，自由民主黨候選人單方面退出并支持Duffield，盡管他很快被自由民主黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層取代。
The Greens, meanwhile, did not stand – and a booth in Canterbury high street was selling blue badges with the message “Tories for Rosie.”
?與此同時，綠黨沒有站起來，坎特伯雷大街的一個攤位上正在出售印有“托利黨支持羅西”字樣的藍(lán)色徽章。
When Duffield, a former assistant teacher and single mother, first won the seat by 187 votes in 2017, ending no less than 185 years of uninterrupted Tory representation, the Tories and the media blamed the student vote.
當(dāng)前助理教師、單身母親達菲爾德在2017年首次以187票的優(yōu)勢贏得席位，終結(jié)了保守黨1985年開始的不間斷的代表權(quán)，而保守黨和媒體卻指責(zé)學(xué)生參與投票。
But while the city does have two big universities and the campus of a third, this has been true for decades.
不過，盡管該市確實有兩所大大學(xué)，還有第三所大學(xué)的分校，但幾十年來情況一直如此。
I asked Mike Bland, campaign coordinator for Duffield, why she had won when so many of her fellow Labour MPs had lost. He said that Labour had lost support in the Leave-voting estates, but “voters stayed home and did not switch to the Tories.”
我問達菲爾德競選協(xié)調(diào)員邁克·布蘭德，為什么她贏了，而她的許多工黨同僚都輸了。他說，工黨已經(jīng)失去了在休假投票區(qū)的支持，其實“選民留在家里，沒有轉(zhuǎn)向保守黨”
Duffield is popular and had distanced herself from Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour leadership – distanced herself so far as to attract furious denunciations from some leaders of the local party.
達菲爾德很受歡迎，她與杰里米·科爾賓和工黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層保持了距離，甚至引來了當(dāng)?shù)匾恍╊I(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的強烈譴責(zé)。
In the constituency there had been a small Remain majority in the referendum, and Duffield was vocally pro-Remain. This was important because in other constituencies, Labour’s suicidal policy of being somewhere in the middle between Leave and Remain managed to alienate both sides, as it was always likely to do.
在公投的選民中留任者占多數(shù)，而達菲爾德在聲音上支持留任。這一點很重要，因為在其他選區(qū)，工黨采取自取滅亡的政策介于離開和留任之間徘徊，從而疏遠(yuǎn)了雙方，兩邊都不討好。
More Labour voters switched to the other Remain parties – often in Leave majority areas – than Labour Leave voters switched to the Tories. For all Boris Johnson’s triumphalism, the overall Tory share of the vote only increased by two per cent.
更多的工黨選民轉(zhuǎn)向其他留任黨（通常是在左翼占多數(shù)的地區(qū)），而不是工黨的左翼選民轉(zhuǎn)向保守黨。盡管鮑里斯·約翰遜（Boris Johnson）的勝利主義者眾多，但保守黨在總選票中所占份額僅增加了2%。
Of course, it’s easy to say what the Labour party should have done if it was less divided. Its ambivalent Brexit policy was a compromise between factions, however toxic it was likely to prove to the electorate as a whole. But the divisions were real, so the only real solution for Labour was to avoid a general election until Brexit was decided one way or another.
當(dāng)然，如果工黨不那么搖擺不定的話，就可以堅定的說它應(yīng)該做些什么。它的矛盾政策是派系之間的妥協(xié)，然而它很可能會對選民產(chǎn)生整體性的毒害。但是分歧是真實的，所以真正的解決辦法是先不要大選，直到英國脫歐這件事塵埃落定。
Numerous Labour and Lib Dem leaders are now saying how much they opposed a general election, but their opposition, if it existed at the time, was largely invisible.
許多工黨和自由民主黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人現(xiàn)在都在說他們反對大選，但是他們的反對聲音，如果當(dāng)時說出的話，在很大程度上是無效的。
Jeremy Corbyn is not often compared to Hillary Clinton, but some of their mistakes were similar. Both wasted the energies of enthusiastic supporters trying to win opposition-held constituencies and states when they should have been fighting desperately to defend their own political bases.
杰里米·科爾賓并不經(jīng)常被比作希拉里·克林頓，但他們的一些錯誤是相似的。兩人都浪費了熱情支持者的精力，他們本應(yīng)拼命捍衛(wèi)自己的政治基礎(chǔ)，卻試圖贏得反對派控制的選區(qū)和州的支持。
Populist nationalist leaders are popping up all over the world. Johnson is only the British iteration of this global trend. All have authoritarian instincts to which they give rein as far as political circumstances allow.
民粹主義民族主義領(lǐng)袖在世界各地涌現(xiàn)。約翰遜只是這一全球趨勢的英國版。在政治環(huán)境允許的范圍內(nèi)，所有人都有自己的統(tǒng)治本能。
Ominously for Britain, the populist nationalist wave is not receding. And once they’ve won it, few, if any, of these leaders have lost their grip on power.
對英國來說，不祥的是，民粹主義民族主義浪潮并未消退。一旦他們贏了，這些領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人就一直占據(jù)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位。
I live in Canterbury, where the Labour MP Rosie Duffield increased her slim majority tenfold in the general election. Given Labour’s defeat in almost all of the rest of the UK, it’s worth considering why this happened,.
我住在坎特伯雷，這里的工黨議員羅西·達菲爾德(Rosie Duffield)在大選中把她微弱優(yōu)勢提高了10倍。如果聯(lián)系到工黨在英國幾乎所有地方的失利，這就值得思考的為什么它會發(fā)生。
A prime reason Duffield retained her seat is that that Labour had the support of a rickety but effective anti-Tory common front that counter-balanced the negative factors which were sinking its hopes elsewhere. The Lib Dem candidate unilaterally stood down and endorsed Duffield so as not to split the Remain vote, though he was promptly replaced by the Lib Dem leadership.
達菲爾德保住席位的一個主要原因是，工黨擁有一個脆弱但有效的反托利的共同陣線的支持。其他地方工黨獲勝希望渺茫，這個共同陣線正好平衡了這一消極因素。為了不分裂留歐派的選票，自由民主黨候選人單方面退出并支持Duffield，盡管他很快被自由民主黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層取代。
The Greens, meanwhile, did not stand – and a booth in Canterbury high street was selling blue badges with the message “Tories for Rosie.”
?與此同時，綠黨沒有站起來，坎特伯雷大街的一個攤位上正在出售印有“托利黨支持羅西”字樣的藍(lán)色徽章。
When Duffield, a former assistant teacher and single mother, first won the seat by 187 votes in 2017, ending no less than 185 years of uninterrupted Tory representation, the Tories and the media blamed the student vote.
當(dāng)前助理教師、單身母親達菲爾德在2017年首次以187票的優(yōu)勢贏得席位，終結(jié)了保守黨1985年開始的不間斷的代表權(quán)，而保守黨和媒體卻指責(zé)學(xué)生參與投票。
But while the city does have two big universities and the campus of a third, this has been true for decades.
不過，盡管該市確實有兩所大大學(xué)，還有第三所大學(xué)的分校，但幾十年來情況一直如此。
I asked Mike Bland, campaign coordinator for Duffield, why she had won when so many of her fellow Labour MPs had lost. He said that Labour had lost support in the Leave-voting estates, but “voters stayed home and did not switch to the Tories.”
我問達菲爾德競選協(xié)調(diào)員邁克·布蘭德，為什么她贏了，而她的許多工黨同僚都輸了。他說，工黨已經(jīng)失去了在休假投票區(qū)的支持，其實“選民留在家里，沒有轉(zhuǎn)向保守黨”
Duffield is popular and had distanced herself from Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour leadership – distanced herself so far as to attract furious denunciations from some leaders of the local party.
達菲爾德很受歡迎，她與杰里米·科爾賓和工黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層保持了距離，甚至引來了當(dāng)?shù)匾恍╊I(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的強烈譴責(zé)。
In the constituency there had been a small Remain majority in the referendum, and Duffield was vocally pro-Remain. This was important because in other constituencies, Labour’s suicidal policy of being somewhere in the middle between Leave and Remain managed to alienate both sides, as it was always likely to do.
在公投的選民中留任者占多數(shù)，而達菲爾德在聲音上支持留任。這一點很重要，因為在其他選區(qū)，工黨采取自取滅亡的政策介于離開和留任之間徘徊，從而疏遠(yuǎn)了雙方，兩邊都不討好。
More Labour voters switched to the other Remain parties – often in Leave majority areas – than Labour Leave voters switched to the Tories. For all Boris Johnson’s triumphalism, the overall Tory share of the vote only increased by two per cent.
更多的工黨選民轉(zhuǎn)向其他留任黨（通常是在左翼占多數(shù)的地區(qū)），而不是工黨的左翼選民轉(zhuǎn)向保守黨。盡管鮑里斯·約翰遜（Boris Johnson）的勝利主義者眾多，但保守黨在總選票中所占份額僅增加了2%。
Of course, it’s easy to say what the Labour party should have done if it was less divided. Its ambivalent Brexit policy was a compromise between factions, however toxic it was likely to prove to the electorate as a whole. But the divisions were real, so the only real solution for Labour was to avoid a general election until Brexit was decided one way or another.
當(dāng)然，如果工黨不那么搖擺不定的話，就可以堅定的說它應(yīng)該做些什么。它的矛盾政策是派系之間的妥協(xié)，然而它很可能會對選民產(chǎn)生整體性的毒害。但是分歧是真實的，所以真正的解決辦法是先不要大選，直到英國脫歐這件事塵埃落定。
Numerous Labour and Lib Dem leaders are now saying how much they opposed a general election, but their opposition, if it existed at the time, was largely invisible.
許多工黨和自由民主黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人現(xiàn)在都在說他們反對大選，但是他們的反對聲音，如果當(dāng)時說出的話，在很大程度上是無效的。
Jeremy Corbyn is not often compared to Hillary Clinton, but some of their mistakes were similar. Both wasted the energies of enthusiastic supporters trying to win opposition-held constituencies and states when they should have been fighting desperately to defend their own political bases.
杰里米·科爾賓并不經(jīng)常被比作希拉里·克林頓，但他們的一些錯誤是相似的。兩人都浪費了熱情支持者的精力，他們本應(yīng)拼命捍衛(wèi)自己的政治基礎(chǔ)，卻試圖贏得反對派控制的選區(qū)和州的支持。
Populist nationalist leaders are popping up all over the world. Johnson is only the British iteration of this global trend. All have authoritarian instincts to which they give rein as far as political circumstances allow.
民粹主義民族主義領(lǐng)袖在世界各地涌現(xiàn)。約翰遜只是這一全球趨勢的英國版。在政治環(huán)境允許的范圍內(nèi)，所有人都有自己的統(tǒng)治本能。
Ominously for Britain, the populist nationalist wave is not receding. And once they’ve won it, few, if any, of these leaders have lost their grip on power.
對英國來說，不祥的是，民粹主義民族主義浪潮并未消退。一旦他們贏了，這些領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人就一直占據(jù)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位。
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Stogumber says:
So Patrick Corbyn went to bed as member of the Labour movement and woke up as a Blairite. Neocon bellicism and dishonesty are forgotten – “we” must overrule the subjective decisions of the working class for the sake of its “obxtive interests” (as did a good Bolshevist between 1917 and 1970). He has discovered the “authoritarian danger”, a so muched loved trope by the Neocon propaganda, will he help to prepare the next Neocon war?
Politics makes strange bedfellows.
于是，帕特里克·科爾賓作為勞工運動的一員睡醒后就變成了一個布萊爾派。新保守主義的好戰(zhàn)和不誠實被遺忘了——“我們”必須為了工人階級的“客觀利益”而推翻工人階級的主觀決定（1917年至1970年，一個好的布爾什維克主義者也是如此）。他發(fā)現(xiàn)了“威權(quán)主義的危險”，這是新保守主義宣傳中一個非常受歡迎的比喻，他會幫助準(zhǔn)備下一場新保守主義戰(zhàn)爭嗎？
政治使人感到奇怪。
Bill Jones says:
Most of the country doesn’t live in a bubble.
這個國家的大部分地區(qū)并不是生活在泡沫之中。
YetAnotherAnon says:
“estate of Thanington, which, because of its reputation for violence and crime, used to be nicknamed “Little Beirut” – that is, until 20 years ago, when it received a ￡2.5 million EU grant to refurbish it”Did they refurbish the people?It wasn’t the buildings that were criminally inclined.
由于其暴力和犯罪的名聲，塔寧頓曾被昵稱為“小貝魯特”——這情況直到20年前，它獲得了250萬英鎊的歐盟撥款才得以翻新。
他們翻新過人民思想嗎？并不是那些建筑物有犯罪傾向。
djm says:
Poor Patrick doesn’t understand the election result.
Bless.
Given his poor analysis, it’s hardly surprising.
可憐的帕特里克不明白選舉結(jié)果。
上帝保佑。
考慮到他分析得不好，這一點也不奇怪。
Jonathan Mason says:
The fact that Canterbury is located right on the corner of England closest to the channel crossings to Europe might have something to do with it as residents can practically commute to Europe.
坎特伯雷位于英格蘭的一角，距離英吉利海峽與歐洲的交叉口最近，這可能與此有關(guān)，因為居民幾乎可以通勤到歐洲上班。
obwandiyag says:
Because Corbyn is an unbelievable wuss. Where do the English get these chinless non-entities?
因為科爾賓是個令人難以置信的笨蛋。英國人從哪里弄來這些尖嘴猴腮的東西。
Altai says:
Johnsons new line about a points based immigration system won’t help help all the other problems of immigration and may make them worse long-term through giving more influential portions of the population an ‘immigration background’, but it will at least help shift the burden away from the most vulnerable. Having to go through at least some rigamarole to get immigrant labour will help to discourage it’s use in the lower skilled sectors. (Though I am sure low skilled immigrants will still be imported and labour sourced far away now that certain sectors have become addicted and entitled to it, it will be harder and profits lower.) The cheap labour from the post-Soviet states was also crucial to starting the housing bubble.
約翰遜關(guān)于基于積分的新移民政策不會幫助解決所有其他移民問題，而且可能會給人民中更有影響力的部分人一個“移民背景”，從而使這些問題在一定時間內(nèi)變得更糟，但它至少會幫助將最弱勢群體身上的負(fù)擔(dān)轉(zhuǎn)移出去。至少要經(jīng)歷一些繁瑣的手續(xù)才能獲得移民勞工，這將有助于阻止低技能部門使用移民勞工。(盡管我確信低技能移民仍將是外來的，勞動力也將來自遙遠(yuǎn)的地方，因為某些行業(yè)已經(jīng)習(xí)慣，并有資格享受這種待遇，但這將更加困難，利潤也會下降。)來自后蘇聯(lián)國家的廉價勞動力也是引發(fā)房地產(chǎn)泡沫的關(guān)鍵因素。
John Johnson says:
You make it sound like this is undeserved. Is London the Labour model for Britain? Mass surveillance, knife control and suppressing rape statistics? What a utopia. US has the same problem where the liberals arrogantly assume they have the best model and yet don’t walk to talk about how they haven’t been able to fix Detroit or Baltimore even with their half trillion dollar war on poverty.
你說得好像這是不應(yīng)該的。倫敦是英國的勞動模范嗎?大規(guī)模監(jiān)控，刀具控制和禁止強奸統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)?真是一個烏托邦。美國也有同樣的問題，自由主義者傲慢地認(rèn)為他們有最好的模式，卻不去談?wù)摷词顾麄兓?000億美元來消除貧困，為什么仍然沒能解決底特律或巴爾的摩的問題。
Polls have shown that Britains want less immigration and yet Labour ignores them. Why?
民意調(diào)查顯示，英國人希望減少移民，但工黨忽視了這一點。為什么?
Your vacuous mainstream analysis is part of the reason why the left will continue to lose. Instead of facing the facts and picking a side you hold out for the most deluded view which is that the Western left has a viable plan and is interested in serving the needs of native workers. The mainstream left is a total joke. Go back to arguing about how many genders there are while the rest of try to think critically about how we can fix this mess, if it is even possible at this point.
你空洞的主流分析是左翼將繼續(xù)失敗的部分原因。而不是面對事實和選擇一方，你堅持最令人迷惑的觀點，即西方左翼有一個可行的計劃，并有興趣服務(wù)于本地工人的需要。主流的左翼是一個徹頭徹尾的笑話?；氐接懻撚卸嗌傩詣e的問題上，而剩下的人則試圖批判性地思考我們?nèi)绾尾拍芙鉀Q這個問題，如果在這一點上有可能的話。
Honesthughgrant says:
So, labour did everything right and just suffered a massive defeat. Sads. Well, just keep doing the same ol’ same ol’ and it will work out next time.
所以，工黨做的一切都是對的，只是遭受了巨大的失敗，有點悲傷而已。好吧，繼續(xù)做同樣的事情，下次會成功的。
22pp22 says：
Canterbury is a luvvie town these days. That is why the Labour vote grew. Of course Canterbury has council estates. Where doesn’t? It is even the centre of the Chrch of England, which said goodbye to Christ ten years ago and said hello to woke.
坎特伯雷現(xiàn)在是個盧維小鎮(zhèn)。這就是工黨投票率上升的原因。坎特伯雷當(dāng)然有議會大廈。哪里沒有？它甚至是英國基督教的中心，十年前，英國人向基督道別，向醒來的人問好。
Labour also held on to all its seats in London which is no longer a British city.
工黨還保住了在倫敦的所有席位，倫敦已不再是英國的城市。移民和男妓現(xiàn)在是勞動力基礎(chǔ)。
Maple Curtain says:
@John Johnson
So the rest of us can get a glimpse of Clown Wold though the mind of one of the clowns
所以我們其他人可以通過一個小丑的頭腦看到小丑世界
but an humble craftsman says:
@davidgmillsatty
The number of people represented by the representatives has not increased hundredfold.
The number of people represented back then was lower than the number of inhsbitants, as it is today.
代表人數(shù)沒有增加一百倍。
那時所代表的人數(shù)低于今天的移民人數(shù)。
Tsar Nicholas says:
Labour did relatively well in 2017 under Corbyn because the Dear Leader promised to honour the referendum result.
工黨在科爾賓的2017年表現(xiàn)相對較好，因為這位親愛的領(lǐng)袖承諾尊重公投結(jié)果。
He then did a volte-face under the influence of the Bliarites in his party, and lost in 2019.
隨后，在黨內(nèi)信眾的影響下，他改變了立場，并在2019年敗選。
George Galloway stated the obvious when he said Brexit lost Labour votes in Labour heartlands. He should know, since he was out knocking on doors to try to win a seat in West Bromwich East. But Galloway also said something else.
喬治·加洛韋(George Galloway)表示，英國退歐在工黨腹地失去了工黨的選票，這是顯而易見的。他應(yīng)該知道，因為他正在挨家挨戶敲門，試圖在西布羅姆維奇東部贏得一個席位。但加洛韋還說了些別的。
Of course, Cockburn lives in his university city, and would probably be repelled by a working class voter if he ever met one.
當(dāng)然，考克伯恩生活在他的大學(xué)城，如果他遇到一個工人階級選民，他可能會被他排斥。
He is pro worker, so he is a Leftist. But because the Left hates workers he hates workers.
他是職業(yè)工人，所以他是左派。但因為左派憎恨工人，所以他憎恨工人。
He is anti Corporation, so he is a Leftist. But because the Left loves Corporations, he loves Corporations.
他反對公司，所以他是左派。但因為左派喜歡公司，所以他也喜歡公司。
The one consistent theme of his politics is that he hates Anglo Saxons, so he is a Leftist. The Left, created by Anglo Saxons, always hates Anglo Saxons.
他的政治主張中有一個始終如一的主題，那就是他憎恨盎格魯-撒克遜人，所以他是左派。由盎格魯-撒克遜人創(chuàng)造的左派，總是憎恨盎格魯-撒克遜人。