Apple boosts India's factory hopes - but a US-China deal could derail plans
Just as India showed flickers of progress toward its long-held dream of becoming the world's factory, Washington and Beijing announced a trade "reset" that could derail Delhi's ambitions to replace China as the global manufacturing hub.

蘋果加碼印度制造遇變數，中美貿易"重啟"或動搖"世界工廠"替代計劃
正當印度朝著"世界工廠"的夢想邁出躊躇步伐之際，中美宣布貿易關系"重啟"，這可能會使新德里取代中國成為全球制造業(yè)中心的雄心受挫。


Last week, Trump's tariffs on China dropped overnight - from 145% to 30%, vs 27% for India - as the two sides thrashed out an agreement in Switzerland.

上周，隨著中美在瑞士達成協議，美國對華關稅稅率一夜之間從145%降至30%，而對印關稅仍維持在27%水平。

As a result, there's a chance manufacturing investment that was moving from China to India could either "stall" or "head back", feels Ajay Srivastava of the Delhi-based think tank, Global Trade Research Institute (GTRI).

因此，總部位于德里的智庫“全球貿易研究所”的專家阿賈伊·斯里瓦斯塔瓦認為，那些原本從中國轉移至印度的制造業(yè)投資，現在有可能“停滯”或“回流”。

"India's low-cost assembly lines may survive, but value-added growth is in danger."

"印度的低成本裝配線或許能夠存活，但價值鏈升級面臨威脅。"

The change in sentiment stands in sharp relief to the exuberance in Delhi last month when Apple indicated that it was shifting most of its production of iPhones headed to the US from China to India.

這種市場情緒的轉變，與上個月新德里方面的熱烈反應形成了鮮明對比。當時，蘋果公司表示正將其大部分銷往美國的iPhone生產線從中國轉移至印度。

That may well still happen, even though US President Donald Trump revealed that he had told Apple CEO Tim Cook not to build in India because it was "one of the highest tariff nations in the world".

盡管特朗普總統公開表示曾告誡蘋果CEO庫克"印度是全球關稅最高的國家之一"，但該計劃仍可能持續(xù)推進。

"India is well positioned to be an alternative to China as a supplier of goods to the US in the immediate term," Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics, wrote in an investor note before the deal was announced. He pointed out that 40% of India's exports to the US were "similar to those exported by China".

凱投宏觀的經濟學家Shilan Shah在該中美協議宣布前的一份投資者報告中寫道：“短期內，印度完全有能力成為中國之外、美國商品供應的另一個選擇。”他指出，對美出口商品中40%與中國輸美商品存在重合。

There were early signs that Indian exporters were already stepping in to fill the gap left by Chinese producers. New export orders surged to a 14-year high, according to a recent survey of Indian manufacturers.

早期跡象表明印度出口商已開始填補中國同行留下的空白。根據近期一項對印度制造商的調查，新增出口訂單飆升至14年來的最高點。

Nomura, a Japanese broking house, also pointed to growing "anecdotal evidence" of India emerging as a winner from "trade diversion and supply-chain shift in low and mid-tech manufacturing" particularly in sectors like electronics, textiles and toys.

日本野村證券也指出，越來越多的“坊間證據”表明，印度正從“中低端制造業(yè)的貿易轉移和供應鏈轉移”中脫穎而出，尤其是在電子、紡織和玩具等行業(yè)。

Some analysts do believe that despite the so-called trade "reset" between Beijing and Washington, a larger strategic decoupling between China and the US will continue to benefit India in the long run.

部分分析師確實認為，盡管北京與華盛頓之間達成了所謂的貿易“重啟”協議，但從長遠來看，中美之間更大范圍的戰(zhàn)略脫鉤仍將使印度受益。

For one, there's greater willingness by Narendra Modi's government to open its doors to foreign companies after years of protectionist policies, which could provide tailwind.

其一，莫迪政府在實行多年保護主義政策后，如今更愿意向外國公司敞開大門，這可能成為一股推動力。
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India and the US are also negotiating a trade deal that could put Asia's third-largest economy in a sweet spot to benefit from the so-called "China exodus" - as global firms shift operations to diversify supply chains.

印度和美國也正在進行貿易協定談判，這可能使這個亞洲第三大經濟體處于有利地位，從所謂的"去中國化"產業(yè)轉移中占據有利位置。

India has just signed a trade pact with the UK, sharply cutting duties in protected sectors like whiskey and automobiles. It offers a glimpse of the concessions Delhi might offer Trump in the ongoing India-US trade talks.

印度剛剛與英國簽署了一項貿易協定，大幅削減了威士忌和汽車等受保護行業(yè)的關稅。這讓外界得以一窺在進行中的印美貿易談判中，新德里可能向特朗普政府作出的讓步。

But all of this optimism needs to be tempered for more reasons than one.

然而，所有這些樂觀情緒都需要因多種原因而有所降溫。

Apart from the fact that China is now back in the running, companies are also "not entirely writing off other Asian competitors, with countries like Vietnam still on their radars", economists Sonal Verma and Aurodeep Nandi from Nomura said in a note earlier this month.

野村證券的經濟學家 Sonal Verma和Aurodeep Nandi在本月早些時候的一份報告中表示，除了中國現在重回競爭行列這一事實外，企業(yè)也“并未完全排除其他亞洲競爭對手，越南等國家仍在它們的關注范圍內”。

"Hence, for India to capitalise on this opportunity, it needs to complement any tariff arbitrage with serious ease-of-doing-business reforms."

“因此，印度若想抓住這一機遇，就需要在利用任何潛在的關稅套利空間的同時，輔以切實的營商便利化改革?！?/b>

A tough business climate has long frustrated foreign investors and stalled India's manufacturing growth, with its share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stuck at around 15% for two decades.

印度嚴峻的營商環(huán)境長期以來令外國投資者感到沮喪，并阻礙了印度制造業(yè)的增長，其制造業(yè)占國內生產總值（GDP）的比重二十年來一直停滯在15%左右。

The Modi government's efforts, such as the Production lixed Incentive (PLI) scheme, have delivered only limited success in boosting this figure.

莫迪政府所做的努力，例如“生產關聯激勵”計劃，在提升這一數字方面僅取得了有限的成功。
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The government's think tank, Niti Aayog, has acknowledged India's "limited success" in attracting investment shifting from China. It noted that factors like cheaper labour, simpler tax laws, lower tariffs, and proactive Free Trade Agreements helped countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Malaysia expand exports - while India lagged behind.

印度政府智庫“國家轉型委員會”坦承，印度在吸引從中國轉移出來的投資方面“成效有限”。該機構指出，更廉價的勞動力、更簡化的稅法、更低的關稅以及積極的自由貿易協定等因素，幫助越南、泰國、柬埔寨和馬來西亞等國擴大了出口，而印度則明顯落后。